Del Mar Picks: Pacific Classic 2024 Date, Entries, Horses, Odds, and Predictions (2024)

Pacific Classic 2024:

The Pacific Classic took on a very different look on Friday when it was announced that favorite Adare Manor was scratched by trainer Bob Baffert. After a morning gallop, something wasn’t right and she won’t get a chance to run against the boys, at least not right now.

The updated odds for Saturday at 9:13 p.m. ET have Dr. Venkman as the new, and rather clear, favorite.

This is a “win and in” race for the Breeders’ Cup Classic, which is at Del Mar this year on November 2.

Here are the Pacific Classic entries, odds, jockeys, and trainers:

Saturday is a big one at Del Mar, as the Pacific Classic is the headliner, but the G2 Del Mar Handicap and Del Mar Mile are part of the undercard, along with the G3 Torrey Pines and Green Flash. Look for Mike Somich and/or Ed Sehon to have some thoughts on those races and the Pacific Classic on Saturday.

With Adare Manor’s scratch, Dr. Venkman went from 5-2 to 8-5 as the favorite. Il Miracolo went from 5-1 to 3-1 and is the second favorite, with Reincarnate down from 8-1 to 5-1. None Above the Law is the only horse whose odds didn’t move, with There Goes Harvard dropping from 15-1 to 10-1, Katonah from 8-1 to 6-1, Full Serrano from 12-1 to 8-1, and Mixto from 20-1 to 15-1.

Baffert and John Sadler have won each of the last seven Pacific Classics, with Sadler in 2018, 2019, 2021, and 2022 and Baffert in 2017, 2020, and 2023, winning last year with Arabian Knight.

Flavien Prat has ridden the winner in three of the last five, but he does not have a mount here.

Here are some notes on the horses:

1. Il Miracolo (3-1; Sano/Smith): The son of Gun Runner has had a solid 4-year-old season. He started with a very underwhelming effort on a two-month layoff in the Pegasus World Cup in January, but has a win, a third and a second in three other starts. He hasn’t run 1 ¼ miles since last year’s Belmont Stakes when he finished seventh over a mile and a half.

There was some thought that Antonio Sano would keep him on the East Coast for the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Saratoga, but he’s been shipped to the West Coast for the first time in his career. Maybe it will be the key to unlocking his potential, as Gun Runner won the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Classic at Del Mar. He only has two career stakes wins over a lot of starts, which is clearly a concern.

The other huge concern is that he’s shipping and running two weeks after the Philip H. Iselin at Monmouth. Going cross-country with a two-week layoff on the heels of 15 weeks off is a lot.

2. There Goes Harvard (10-1; McCarthy/Berrios): Trainer Michael McCarthy and the connections had a decision to make going into this weekend. Should There Goes Harvard run on the turf in the Del Mar Handicap or take a shot on the dirt in the Pacific Classic? Well, new owner Aron Wellman of Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners opted for the G1 shot at the $1,000,000 purse.

He’s been lightly-raced, though, running twice in 2023 and twice here in 2024. Both starts in 2024 have been on turf and he’s missed the board in both of them, finishing fourth and ninth. He was the 2022 Hollywood Gold Cup winner at Santa Anita, but has only run once on the Del Mar dirt, finishing ninth in the G2 San Diego Handicap a couple years ago.

3. Dr. Venkman (8-5; Glatt/Fresu): Speaking of the G2 San Diego Handicap, that is precisely what Dr. Venkman won in the lead-up to this race. This is a major increase in distance from that 1 3/16-mile race, which was the farthest that Dr. Venkman had gone to date. His other starts were all sprints after starting in July as a 3-year-old. He won two races at Del Mar last summer before stepping up to the plate in a couple of stakes starts, finishing second in the Perryville at Keeneland and second to open 2024 in the June G2 Triple Bend.

A win here means entry into the Classic. Coming up short here likely means running the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. Sire Ghostzapper started as a sprinter before rattling off wins in the Philip H. Iselin, Woodward, and Breeders’ Cup Classic in 2004. Dr. Venkman went off at 3-1 in the San Diego Handicap and outran favorite Arabian Knight and found a second gear to beat Katonah, who was 20-1 in the five-horse field.

4. Reincarnate (5-1; Baffert/Kimura): Baffert has one entry in this year’s Pacific Classic in Reincarnate with rider Kazushi Kimura. The son of Good Magic and Allanah will need a big bounce back effort after finishing well behind Midnight Mammoth in the Cougar II last month at Del Mar. Midnight Mammoth was expected to be in this field, but didn’t respond well to a workout last week.

That was the first Del Mar race for Reincarnate in nearly two years. It has been over a year and a run of seven races since the 4-year-old won the Los Alamitos Derby last year, but he is one of the only horses in this field with a lot of data points at this distance and there are concerns about the distance for the majority of this field.

5. Katonah (6-1; O’Neill/Pereira): San Diego Handicap runner-up Katonah will give it a go for Doug O’Neill in this one. The son of Klimt and Ctimene ran second after a layoff of more than a year. Katonah was right there in that San Diego Handicap and maybe would’ve won with a little more distance. That being said, this is a horse with a top Equibase Speed Figure of 107 this year and only $270,000 and change in earnings over 12 starts.

To be fair, Katonah only has two stakes races to his name with a win and a second, but that also means that this is a noteworthy step up in both class and distance. He’s hit the board in seven straight dirt races, so putting him in exotics does make sense.

6. Full Serrano (8-1; Sadler/Gutierrez): It simply wouldn’t be a Pacific Classic field without a John Sadler entry. Maybe Sadler can work some magic here, but his past winners in the PC have been much more accomplished than this runner. He won over a mile at Del Mar earlier this month in his U.S. debut, but posted just a 95 Equibase Figure. That said, it was an impressive win and he pulled away from the field for a rocking chair victory late.

The Argentinian 5-year-old just joined the Sadler barn, so we’ll see if he can make a big leap. Sadler’s won four times here since 2018. With all but one data point in Argentina, Full Serrano is a bit of an unknown.

7. Adare Manor (SCR; Baffert/Hernandez): SCRATCHED

8. None Above the Law (20-1; Periban/Laprida): The longest short on the board is 6-year-old None Above the Law, the son of Karakontie and Legally Blanca. He’s got seven wins in 35 starts and one in seven efforts this year. He only has one win on dirt since July 2021 and, incredibly, has no prior starts at 1 ¼ miles. While the recent form has been good, he should be outclassed here.

9. Mixto (15-1; O’Neill/Frey): With one win in 13 tries, Mixto fills out the field from the far post. He’s gone a mile and a quarter twice, finishing fifth both times. He’s never won a stakes race, but has hit the board in three of them this year. His last trip to Del Mar was a winner on the seventh try to break the maiden.

He has been running well of late with some solid speed figures, even if the results aren’t quite there. He’s also had some good workouts and has a chance to push the pace from the outside. Filling out exotics is a possibility.

Pacific Classic Picks

Dr. Venkman’s main flaw is not running enough, but he liked the quick turnover at Del Mar last year, winning about six weeks after breaking his maiden. And he went from June 1 to July 27 this year and put up a strong showing in the San Diego Handicap. This is the shortest time between races in his career, but he’s the horse I like the most and the one I preferred even with Adare Manor in the field.

I’m also looking at Reincarnate. I didn’t love the ride from Juan Hernandez in either the Cougar or Hollywood Gold Cup, as Mr. Fisk and Midnight Mammoth, respectively, won late. Kimura had a very patient ride on Mr Fisk to get the distance for Baffert in the Gold Cup and I think he’ll have a different strategy on Reincarnate here, who will probably still set the pace, but I think will have more in the tank. I also like back-to-back starts at the long distance, where Baffert can make adjustments.

Using a hypothetical $50 bankroll:

$15 Win ($15)

3 Dr. Venkman

$10 Win ($10)

4 Reincarnate

$2 Trifecta Wheel ($24)

3,4 / 1,3,4,6 / 1,3,4,6

$1 Superfecta ($1)

3-4-6-1